Wednesday, 29 November 2017 13:44

Trump helps: POLL says Roy Moore leads in US Senate race vs. Doug Jones

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roy mooreAccording to Louisiana pollster John Couvillon of JMC Analytics and Polling, Roy Moore is in the driver's seat in the controversial Alabama runoff election for US Senate.  Moreover, the automated poll indicates that the sex scandal has not had any material impact on the race.


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Here is the summary of the JMC Poll:

JMC Analytics and Polling independently conducted this poll for the Alabama U.S. Senate special election. There 
are three main takeaways from this poll: (1) Roy Moore has regained the lead he lost in the last poll, as partisan
preferences have reasserted themselves, (2) similarly, Republicans have regained their plurality lead on the generic
ballot test, and (3) sexual misconduct allegations against Moore have not materially impacted the race.
While Donald Trump carried Alabama by an overwhelming 62-34% margin last year, the softening of his approval
ratings nationally was also apparent in Alabama, although it has now stabilized: it was 51-41% in the October poll,
52-41% in the last poll, and 52-43% in this poll. Blacks disapprove of his performance 87-4%, while women are
tied 46-46%. On the other hand, whites give him a 67-28% approval, while men approve by a somewhat smaller
59-39% majority.

Since the last poll, both Republicans in general and Roy Moore specifically have regained their plurality leads, and
this arguably can be attributed to existing partisan preferences’ reasserting themselves: in the last poll, Moore was
tied 47-47% among male voters and trailed 42-48% among women. While he still trails by a similar 44-50%
among women (leaners included), he has rebounded among men and leads 54-37%. Similarly, among selfidentified
evangelicals, the 57-34% support he had in the last poll is now 64-29%. The numbers barely changed
among non-evangelicals, where his 22-73% poll deficit is now 23-72%.

Furthermore, if the Senate race were examined through the lens of a respondent’s opinion of President Trump,
those approving of President Trump’s job performance supported Moore 76-10% in the last poll but now favor
Moore 87-7% (they also favor a generic Republican 88-7%). Similarly, those disapproving of Trump’s
performance supported Jones 93-3% last time; this time, they favor Jones 90-4% and a generic Democrat 92-5%.
It’s among those undecided about President Trump Jones should be concerned about: they favored Jones
43-19% last time; now, they only favor him 42-39% and a generic Democrat 42-32%.

A final way of analyzing partisan preferences’ reasserting themselves is to aggregate the results by urban,
suburban, and small town/rural counties. In the last poll, the four largest counties (Jefferson, Madison, Mobile, and
Montgomery) favored Jones 59-33% over Moore – that lead has shrunk to 53-38% (i.e., Jones’ lead went from 26
to 15 points). Moore’s lead in the suburban counties (Autauga, Baldwin, Blount, Elmore, St Clair, and Shelby) has
improved from 54-34% to 61-34% (i.e., his lead increased from 20 to 27 points). And in the remaining 57 counties,
his lead has similarly increased from 50-43% to 53-41% (i.e., his lead nearly doubled from seven to 12 points).
When the last poll was released, allegations of sexual misconduct against Moore had just been publicized. Since
then, additional allegations have come out, but the poll results then (and now) didn’t show that these allegations
have appreciably changed the poll results. For one thing, even in this poll, 29% are more likely to support Moore
over the allegations, 38% are less likely, and 34% said it makes no difference – numbers almost identical to the
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last poll. It’s when examining the correlation of these responses to the ballot test that it’s again apparent how
partisan lines have hardened, and those alignments benefit Moore. Last time, those more likely to support Moore
over the allegations favored him over Jones 84-13% - now, the margin of support for Moore is 90-9%. Those
saying the incident makes them less likely to support Moore favored Jones 81-9% in the last poll and 84-6% now.
However, those saying the incident makes no difference favored Moore 51-39% last time, but Moore now
leads 62-30% among this group. In other words, existing partisan attitudes that are keeping President Trump’s
approval ratings in Alabama above 50% are now benefitting Moore as well.

In summary, Roy Moore has regained his lost lead. While the race is not a certainty for him, the solidification of
existing partisan preferences benefits his campaign. 

Since the last poll, President Donald Trump has come out against Moore's opponent, Jones and more revelations have hit Democratic politicians and members of the media.



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