Tuesday, 15 March 2016 14:04

Louisiana poll: Kennedy up, Foster Campbell needs clear path

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manessby Lou Gehrig Burnett, Publisher of Fax-Net

Interesting Senate poll

    There is a new poll on the Louisiana U.S. Senate race.  But a word of caution.  It is always prudent to determine who commissioned the poll

    In this case, it was the Make Louisiana Proud Political Action Committee, which is supporting Republican state Treasurer John Kennedy.  The poll was conducted by Survey USA.
    The polling firm concluded that Kennedy appears likely to advance to the runoff and defeat anyone who winds up in the runoff with him.
    Here the results with the entire field of declared and potential candidates:
    State Treasurer John Kennedy (R) – 21%.
    PSC Foster Campbell (D) – 12%.
    U.S. Rep. Charles Boustany (R) – 10%.
    Caroline Fayard (D) – 10%.
    U.S. Rep. John Fleming (R) – 7%.
    Rob Maness (R) – 6%.
    Troy Hebert (I) – 5%.
    Derrick Edwards (D) – 5%.
    Former U.S. Rep. Joseph Cao (R) – 4%.
    Josh Pellerin (D) – 3%.
    If you break the poll down further, it reveals that 48% of respondents chose a Republican candidate, 30% chose a Democratic candidate, and 5% went for an independent.
    It’s still early, of course, and the vote is spread out over the 10 candidates surveyed.  Obviously, many voters do not yet know a lot about most of the candidates.
    In hypothetical runoffs, here are the results:
    John Kennedy (R  54%, Foster Campbell (D) 34% with 12% undecided.
    John Kennedy (R) 54%, Caroline Fayard (D) 34% with 12% undecided.
    John Kennedy (R) 50%, Charles Boustany (R) 22% with 27% undecided.
    The consensus is that Campbell is the most formidable Democrat.  But he likely needs a clear path, and if three other Democrats are on the ballot, his road to the runoff becomes more difficult.
    Survey USA also asked respondents how they viewed other officials – favorably or unfavorably.  Here are those results:
    President Barack Obama – 38% favorable, 57% unfavorable, and 5% wouldn’t say.
    Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump – 35% favorable, 55% unfavorable, and 10% wouldn’t say.
    Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton – 35% favorable, 59% unfavorable, and 6% wouldn’t say.
    Republican U.S. Sen. David Vitter – 37% favorable, 49% unfavorable, and 14% wouldn’t say.
    Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards – 42% favorable, 42% unfavorable, and 16% wouldn’t say.
    Among U.S. Senate candidates, here are the percentages for favorable-unfavorable-wouldn’t say results:
    John Kennedy (R) – 51-18-31.
    Rob Maness (R) – 26-12-62.
    Foster Campbell (D) – 26-19-56.
    Charles Boustany (R) – 23-13-61.
    John Fleming (R) – 23-17-60.
    Caroline Fayard (D) – 13-13-74.

Looks like Trump and Clinton
    Unless things drastically change soon, it appears that New York billionaire Donald Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will battle it out to be the next president of the United States.
    A clearer picture will emerge Tuesday, March 15 when primaries are held in five states rich in delegates. Florida, Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio are winner-take-all states, while North Carolina awards proportionally.
    The elections are crucial to the campaigns of Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio and Ohio Gov. John Kasich.  It is imperative that they win their home state.  If they fail to do so, it will likely mean the end of their campaigns,
    Here is the average of polls in these states by Realclearpolitics.com:
    Florida  – GOP – Donald Trump 41.8%, Marco Rubio 24.3%, Ted Cruz 18.6%, John Kasich 9.6%.
    DEM – Hillary Clinton 62.5%, Bernie Sanders 29.3%
    Illinois – GOP – Trump 31%, Cruz 19%, Kasich 16.3%, Rubio 15.3%.
    DEM – Clinton 60%, Sanders 27.3%.
    Missouri – GOP – Trump 36%. Cruz 29%, Rubio 9%, Kasich 8%.
    DEM – Clinton 47%, Sanders 40%.
    North Carolina – GOP – Trump 35.6%, Cruz 23.8%, Rubio 12%, Kasich 10.4%.
    DEM – Clinton 54.2%, Sanders 33.6%.
    Ohio – GOP – Trump 36.5%, Kasich 34%, Cruz 16.3%, Rubio 7%.
    DEM – Clinton 57%, Sanders 37%.
    National – GOP – Trump 36%, Cruz 21.8%, Rubio 18%, Kasich 12%.
    DEM – Clinton 51%, Sanders 39.5%.
    Delegate Count as of 3/14 – GOP (1,237 Needed) – Trump, 469, Cruz 370, Rubio 163, Kasich 63.
    DEM (2,382 Needed) – Clinton 1,231, Sanders 576.
    Trump-Clinton Match-up – Clinton 47.3%, Trump 41%.

(Photo: Rob Maness)



Lou Gehrig Burnett

Lou Gehrig Burnett is the publisher of Fax-Net, a North-Louisiana newsletter.


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