TOverall, the survey results do show more whites moving to Vitter, which he needs and less African Americans actually saying they are going to vote.
Has the major issue of the moment thhe Syria Refugee controversy made any real dent in John Bel Edwards' lead over Vitter? It appears that based upon the poll numbers it is somewhat neglible, but Crouere and Faucheux have varying views.
Hurting Vitter are his unfavorables.
Ultimately, the big factor is the black turnout. Kennedy notes that in raw nnumbers, Edwards has a five point lead but after reconfigring based upon Africann American turnout, the lead could be as low as six point differential a(if the black turnout would be 20% and as high as 15 (if the turnout would be 30%).
Here is the MRI results and a link to the pdf.
Do watch the discussion with Crouere and Faucheux which i believe you will find useful:
MARKET RESEARCH INSIGHT
LOUISIANA RUN-OFF
SURVEY RESEARCH REPORT
NOVEMBER 16-18, 2015 900 SAMPLE
OVERALL RESULTS WITH 300 PWE NIGHT
QUESTION 1. HOW LIKELY ARE YOU TO VOTE IN THE NOVEMBER 21ST RUN-OFF
ELECTION FOR GOVERNOR AND OTHER STATEWIDE OFFICES:
# %
1. DEFINITELY VOTING 796 88
2. PROBABLY VOTING 104 12
TOTAL 900
QUESTION 2. NIGHT. BY OBSERVATION
# %
6. NIGHT 6 301 33
7. NIGHT 7 299 33
8. NIGHT 8 300 33
TOTAL 900
QUESTION 3. JOHN BEL EDWARDS
# %
1. STRONGLY FAVORABLE 228 25
2. SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE 220 24
3. SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE 187 21
4. STRONGLY UNFAVORABLE 113 13
5. NO OPINION 148 16
6. NOT AWARE 4 0
TOTAL 900
FAVORABLE 448 50%
UNFAVORABLE 300 33%
NET FAVORABLE 148 16%
FAVOR : UNFAVOR 1.5:1
MARKET RESEARCH INSIGHT 11-19-2015 PAGE OV-1
LOUISIANA RUN-OFF
SURVEY RESEARCH REPORT
NOVEMBER 2015 NIGHT 6-8
OVERALL RESULTS
QUESTION 4. DAVID VITTER
# %
1. STRONGLY FAVORABLE 178 20
2. SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE 218 24
3. SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE 175 19
4. STRONGLY UNFAVORABLE 186 21
5. NO OPINION 139 15
6. NOT AWARE 4 0
TOTAL 900
FAVORABLE 396 44%
UNFAVORABLE 361 40%
NET FAVORABLE 35 4%
FAVOR : UNFAVOR 1.1:1
NOTES: VITTER CONTINUES TO HAVE HIGH UNFAVORABLES OF 40% WITH ONLY 4% HIGHER
FAVORABLE. EDWARDS HAS 50% FAVORABLE WITH 33% UNFAVORABLE FOR A NET
DIFFERENCE OF 16% COMPARED TO 4% FOR VITTER. VITTER’S FAVORABLES ARE
IN A SLOW DECLINE AND EDWARDS SHOW IMPROVE OF AT LEAST 1% PER DAY IN THE
THREE DAYS.
QUESTION 5.
IF THE NOVEMBER 21ST RUN-OFF ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY,
WOULD YOU VOTE FOR: JOHN BEL EDWARDS,A DEMOCRAT OR DAVID VITTER,
A REPUBLICAN? IF NOT SURE/REFUSED… EVEN THOUGH YOU ARE UNDECIDED
ABOUT YOUR VOTE FOR GOVERNOR, ARE YOU LEANING TOWARD:
JOHN BEL EDWARDS, A DEMOCRAT OR DAVID VITTER, A REPUBLICAN?
ADJUSTED ADJUSTED ADJUSTED UNADJUSTED
20%AA 26%AA 30%AA
1. VITTER 43% 40% 39% 33%
2. LEAN VITTER 9
3. LEAN EDWARDS 11
4. EDWARDS 49 52 54 36
98. NOT SURE 7% 8* 7* 11
EDWARDS 49% 52% 54% 47%
VITTER 43 40 39 42%
NOTES: WHITES FOR THREE DAYS 900 SAMPLE 26% AA VITTER 52% EDWARDS 38%. FOR
MONDAY 300 SAMPLE VITTER 51%, TUESDAY 51, AND WEDNESDY 52%. EDWARDS
ALL WHITES MONDAY 40%, TUESDAY 37%, AND WEDNESDAY 39%. NO MAJOR
MOVEMENTS AMONG WHITE EXCEPT VITTER GAINING AN AVERAGE OF ALMOST
ONE-HALF PERCENT AMONG WHITES PER NIGHT WITH ONLY TWO NIGHTS TO GO.
AT 26% AA FACTORING IN UNDECIDED WHITES RACE IS ABOUT EDWARDS 55% AND
VITTER 45%. IF HIGHER THAN 26% AA TURNOUT THE DIFFERENCE WIDDENS IN EDWARDS’ FAVOR. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN DEMOGRAPHIC SUPPORT AMONG WHITES.
ALTHOGH BOTH MAINTAIN STRONG WHITE SUPPORT WITH PARTY VOTERS, EDWARDS
LEADS VITTER 46% TO 36% AMONG INDEPENDENTS AND THEY ARE ONLY SEPARATED
BY 1% AMONG WHITE 65 YEARS PLUS.
MARKET RESEARCH INSIGHT 11-19-2015 PAGE OV-2
LOUISIANA RUN-OFF
SURVEY RESEARCH REPORT
NOVEMBER 2015 NIGHT 6-8
OVERALL RESULTS
QUESTION 6. IN A RUN-OFF ELECTION FOR LT. GOVERNOR HELD TODAY,
WOULD YOU VOTE FOR: MELVIN “KIP” HOLDEN, A DEMOCRAT
OR WILLIAM “BILLY” NUNGESSER, A REPUBLICAN?
IF NOT SURE/REFUSED… EVEN THOUGH YOU ARE UNDECIDED ABOUT
YOUR VOTE FOR LT. GOVERNOR, ARE YOU LEANING TOWARD:
MELVIN “KIP” HOLDEN, A DEMOCRAT OR WILLIAM “BILLY” NUNGESSER,
A REPUBLICAN?
ADJUSTED ADJUSTED ADJUSTED UNADJUSTED
20%AA 26%AA 30%AA
1. HOLDEN 38% 42% 44% 28%
2. LEAN HOLDEN 7
3. LEAN NUNGESSER 10
4. NUNGESSER 51 49 47 43
98. NOT SURE 11* 9* 8* 13
NUNGESSER 51% 49% 47% 53%
HOLDEN 38 42 44 34
NOTES: HOLDEN DID INCREASE HIS WHITE VOTE 6% FOR THE 300 SAMPLE
WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE THINGS REMAINED ABOUT THE SAME AND A 300
SAMPLE HAS ALMOST A 6% ERROR FACTOR.
QUESTION 7. IN A RUN-OFF ELECTION FOR ATTORNEY GENERAL HELD TODAY,
WOULD YOU VOTE FOR: BUDDY CALDWELL, A REPUBLICAN OR
JEFF LANDRY, A REPUBLICAN? IF NOT SURE/REFUSED… EVEN
THOUGH YOU ARE UNDECIDED ABOUT YOUR VOTE FOR ATTORNEY
GENERAL, ARE YOU LEANING TOWARD: BUDDY CALDWELL, A REPUBLICAN
OR JEFF LANDRY, A REPUBLICAN?
# %
1. CALDWELL 228 26
2. LEAN CALDWELL 94 11
3. LEAN LANDRY 98 11
4. LANDRY 305 35
98. NOT SURE 156 18
LANDRY 403 46%
CALDWELL 322 37%
NOTES: LANDRY CONTINUES TO LEAD AMONG WHITES BUT LANDRY LOST
5% WEDNESDAY BUT AGAIN WITH A 300 SAMPLE. CALDWELL LEADS LANDRY
ALMOST TWO TO ONE WITH BLACKS. THE ONLY THING THAT COULD REVERSE
AT THIS TIME IS CALDWELL GETTING ALMOST 80% OF A LARGE BLACK
PARTICIPATION OF ABOUT 30%. THAT COMBINED WITH 37% OF WHITES WOULD
GIVE CALDWELL OVER 50% IF COMBINED WITH 37% PLUS OF WHITES. CALDWEL IS
CURRENTLY 34% AMONG WHITES WITH 15% UNDECIDED WHICH WOULD EASILY
PUSH HIM ABOVE 37%.
LOUISIANA RUN-OFF
SURVEY RESEARCH REPORT
NOVEMBER 2015 NIGHT 6-8
OVERALL RESULTS
QUESTION 8. REGARDLESS OF HOW YOU ARE REGISTERED TO VOTE, DO YOU THINK
OF YOURSELF AS A REPUBLICAN, A DEMOCRAT, OR AN INDEPENDENT?
(IF INDEPENDENT, ASK…) DO YOU LEAN MORE TOWARD THINKING OF
YOURSELF AS A REPUBLICAN OR A DEMOCRAT?
# %
1. DEMOCRAT 257 29
2. INDEPENDENT DEMOCRAT 79 9
3. COMPLETELY INDEPENDENT 172 19
4. INDEPENDENT REPUBLICAN 90 10
5. REPUBLICAN 302 34
TOTAL 900
REPUBLICAN 392 44%
DEMOCRAT 336 37%
NET REPUBLICAN 56 7%
REP : DEM 1.2:1
QUESTION 9. DO YOU CONSIDER YOURSELF A BORN-AGAIN OR
EVANGELICAL CHRISTIAN? (IF YES, ASK…)
IN A TYPICAL MONTH, HOW MANY TIMES DO
YOU GO TO CHURCH?
# %
1. NOT EVANGELICAL/BORN-AGAIN C 286 33
2. EVANGELICAL CHRISTIAN <4 TIM 330 38
3. EVANGELICAL CHRISTIAN/>4 TIM 246 28
98. NOT SURE 13 1
99. REFUSED 25
TOTAL 900
QUESTION 10. AGE
# %
1. 18-34 72 8
2. 35-44 106 12
3. 45-54 206 23
4. 55-64 192 21
5. 65+ 324 36
TOTAL 900
MARKET RESEARCH INSIGHT 11-19-2015 PAGE OV-4
LOUISIANA RUN-OFF
SURVEY RESEARCH REPORT
NOVEMBER 2015 NIGHT 6-8
OVERALL RESULTS
QUESTION 11. ETHNICITY
# %
1. AFRICAN-AMERICAN 205 23
2. ETHNIC MAJORITY (WHITE) 672 75
3. HISPANIC 23 3
TOTAL 900
QUESTION 12. AFFILIATION
# %
1. DEMOCRAT 455 51
2. REPUBLICAN 325 36
3. UNAFFILIATED 120 13
TOTAL 900
QUESTION 13. GENDER
# %
1. MALE 428 48
2. FEMALE 472 52
TOTAL 900
QUESTION 14. DMA
# %
1. ALEXANDRIA 58 6
2. BATON ROUGE 201 22
3. LAFAYETTE 145 16
4. LAKE CHARLES 43 5
5. MONROE-EL DORADO 97 11
6. NEW ORLEANS 260 29
7. SHREVEPORT 96 11
TOTAL 900
MARKET RESEARCH INSIGHT 11-19-2015 PAGE OV-5
LOUISIANA RUN-OFF
SURVEY RESEARCH REPORT
NOVEMBER 2015 NIGHT 6-8
OVERALL RESULTS
QUESTION 15. CELL PHONES
# %
1. YES 181 20
2. NO 719 80
TOTAL 900
