Monday, 23 March 2015 19:50

Louisiana governor's race polls, voters unrest and broke

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Louisiana capitolby Lou Gehrig Burnett, Publisher of Fax-Net
With 2015 being a high-profile election year in the great State of Louisiana, with the governor’s race at the top of the heap, it is not surprising, therefore, that polls are on a roll to detect the views of the state’s voters.

Last week, we reported on a poll by Triumph Campaigns. This week, there is another poll by a company called MarblePort Polling. It is run by Ethan Zorfas, who was the mastermind behind U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy’s win over Mary Landrieu.
Interestingly, while the Triumph Campaigns poll was criticized by some other pollsters and politicos, the MarblePort poll came up with basically the same results.
Here is a look at the MarblePort’s results from a survey of 1,071 likely voters on March 17:
Governor’s Race
U.S. Sen. David Vitter (R) – 33.5%.
State Rep. John Bel Edwards (D) – 31.3%.
Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne (R) – 14%.
Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle (R) – 7.2%.
Undecided – 7%.
As a comparison, in the Triumph Campaigns poll, the results were: Vitter 35%, Edwards 33%, Dardenne 15%, and Angelle 7%.
The conclusion of both polls is that the governor’s race is shaping up to be a runoff between a Republican and Democrat at this point in time. It is still early in the race and it is not known who else may enter the race.
Governor Bobby Jindal
The MarblePort poll, like the Triumph Campaigns poll, is not good news for Gov. Bobby Jindal.
MarblePort finds that only 28% approve of the job he is doing as governor, while 63% disapprove.
Campaign Triumphs poll had Jindal with a 27% approval and 63% disapproval rating.
Breaking down the stats on Jindal, 32% of men respondents believe he is doing a good job, while only 25% of women think so.
By party affiliation, 51% of Republicans approve of Jindal, while 38% do not. Democrats give Jindal a 77% disapproval rating, while only 14% think he is doing a good job.
And No Party/Other Party voters give Jindal an 18% job approval rating, while 77% disapprove of the job he is doing as governor.

Trust in the Legislature
MarblePort found that only six points separate Republicans from Democrats as far as who is most trusted in the state Legislature. Of respondents, 46% said Republicans; 40% Democrats. Nine percent said neither and 5% were undecided.
No Party/Other Party voters think Democrats are more trustworthy by a 37-31% margin. Saying neither were 23% and 9% were undecided.
Political Environment
According to the MarblePort poll, Democrats are benefiting from a much improved political environment when compared to the 2014 U.S. Senate election. In close races, this should help Democrat candidates up and down the ballot, the poll concludes.
The mood of voters is not good for incumbents. An overwhelmingly large majority of voters believe the state is off on the wrong track. Only 30% said the state is on the right track, while 70% said it’s on the wrong track.
Those are the exact same numbers that were reported in the Triumph Campaigns poll.
Voter dissatisfaction is across the board. The poll concludes that considering Republicans are in control of all statewide offices and the state Legislature, this could provide an opportunity for Democrats to make gains.
Angelle Internal Poll
Jeremy Alford at revealed an internal poll that was conducted by McLaughlin and Associates for gubernatorial candidate Scott Angelle
The results were Vitter 32.9%, Edwards 16.9%, Dardenne 10.7%, Angelle 7.4% and Undecided 31.4%.
But the poll showed Vitter with 15% of the black vote, which he will have a difficult time capturing in the October election, given the state’s past voting patterns.
Giving Edwards a large portion of those black voters – if he is the only viable Democrat on the ballot – would likely give him a big bump in his percentage of the vote, according to Alford’s report.
At the same time, it would bring down Vitter’s percentage of the vote.
As it stands now, however, the polls recently conducted are pretty much getting the same results.

No presidential primary?
Louisiana officials have moved around the date of the presidential primary election in an effort to make the state a key player in the important nationwide hunt for convention delegates and, ultimately, the presidential nomination.
Now, Secretary of State Tom Schedler is warning state legislators that the Louisiana presidential primary may become a victim of budget cuts.
He told to the House Appropriations Committee that Gov. Jindal’s current budget does not provide the funds to hold next year’s presidential primary. And, he said that he will be forced to eliminate his office’s voter outreach program, which would come on the heels of the 50th anniversary of “Bloody Sunday” and the historic March in Selma.
Louisiana Democratic Party Chair Karen Carter Peterson was not a happy camper when hearing Schedler’s comments. She said:
“This is an absolute outrage and a complete abdication of core responsibilities of state government. Reasonable people can have robust conversations about the role and size of government, but surely we should all be able to agree that one role of government is to oversee fair and impartial elections. Eliminating Louisiana’s voice in the choice of our next president is unacceptable.”
Peterson, along with political journalists and others, quickly questioned whether Gov. Jindal knows exactly what he is going because he knows he couldn’t win in his own state if he is a GOP presidential candidate.
They contend that the fact Jindal had only two percent of the vote in a recent Iowa presidential poll and the fact that two recent Louisiana polls show him with a job approval rating of 28% may have been factors in the governor’s decision to eliminate the presidential primary in the Pelican State.
The state Legislature will have to deal with the thorny issue in this year’s session.

Previously published on Fax-Net;  
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Lou Gehrig Burnett

Lou Gehrig Burnett is the publisher of Fax-Net, a North-Louisiana newsletter. | This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

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